Full record
50% rightmarketsTesla's market capitalization will reach $1.5 trillion (roughly doubling from its Feb 2021 value).
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
50% rightmarkets“tesla is a 1.5 trillion company i said it when the share price was 400 i told you it's gonna go to 1.5 trillion”
Tesla's market capitalization will reach $1.5 trillion (roughly doubling from its Feb 2021 value).
- Made on
- 2021-02-15
- Outcome
- 50% right
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.27
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-02-15
Tesla's market capitalization reaches or exceeds $1.5 trillion at any point within the window.
Criterion ('Tesla market cap reaches or exceeds $1.5 trillion at any point within the window') was NOT met; window maximum ~$1.2T (Nov 2021), never approached $1.5T. Resolved on the deadline date (a 'by deadline' event that did not occur).
Sources
What Chamath JUST Said About Tesla | Summary and Reaction
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Tesla's market capitalization peaked near ~$1.2 trillion in November 2021 (record share high ~$414.50 on Nov 4, 2021; ~$1.2T cap on Nov 30, 2021) — its all-time high. It never reached $1.5 trillion within the 2021-02-15 → 2024-02-15 window.
CompaniesMarketCap Tesla market-cap history shows the November 2021 peak (~$1.2T) as the maximum; the cap declined through 2022-2023 and was well below $1.5T through February 2024.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+2.27- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- 50% right
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Tesla's market capitalization will reach $1.5 trillion (rou…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2021-02-15
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources