Full record
HitmarketsThe US stock market will not fall drastically in 2024; it will take a small dip and then stabilize
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitmarkets“We're still on the road map for three rate cuts. The market isn't going to go drastically down, it's just basically going to take a little dip but then stabilize.”
The US stock market will not fall drastically in 2024; it will take a small dip and then stabilize
- Made on
- 2024-04-10
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- +3.82
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-12-31
S&P 500 does not undergo a drastic decline (no drawdown >~20% from its high) in 2024, experiencing only a shallow dip followed by stabilization/recovery by 2024-12-31
Criterion: no drawdown >~20% from its high in 2024, only a shallow dip then stabilization/recovery. Actual max drawdown ~8.5% and full-year return ~+23-25%. The 'small dip then stabilize' pattern matches (notably the ~8.5% Aug pullback followed by recovery to record highs). Criterion satisfied on the written terms.
Sources
MIND-BLOWING News Just Hit The Stock Market!
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
The S&P 500 gained ~23.3% on price return (~25% total return) in 2024, setting dozens of record highs — a strong up year, not a drastic fall.
The largest intra-year drawdown in 2024 was about 8.5% (early-August 2024 pullback), well below the ~20% 'drastic decline' threshold; the market dipped and then recovered/stabilized to new highs.
Corrections
- horizon type: No explicit deadline phrase in the quote; end-2024 window inferred from surrounding 2024 rate-cut context.
- Prediction timeframe: Basis should not imply an explicit 'this year' phrase absent from the verbatim.
Effect on the score
+3.82- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The US stock market will not fall drastically in 2024; it w…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-04-10
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources