Apple's EBITDA margin rises from about 29% into the 30s / mid-30s by 2026-03-03.

What counted as right

Status

resolved

Settled on

2024-10-31

Resolves TRUE if Apple's EBITDA margin (EBITDA divided by total revenue, trailing twelve months, from reported financials) reaches at least 33% — the midpoint of the stated 'the 30s and mid 30s' range — in any reported period on or before 2026-03-03; FALSE if it stays below 33% throughout.

Criterion threshold is EBITDA/revenue (TTM) >= 33% in ANY reported period on or before 2026-03-03. Using Apple's own reported operating income plus cash-flow-statement D&A (the standard EBITDA build, since Apple does not report EBITDA), the margin is 34.44% for FY2024 (reported 2024-10-31), 34.78% for FY2025 (reported 2025-10-30), and 35.10% on a TTM basis through the December 27, 2025 quarter reported in January 2026. Well clear of 33% and clearly satisfied before the deadline. resolved_on is set to Apple's FY2024 results publication date, the earliest date at which a primary-sourced reported period demonstrably exceeded 33%; the condition was very likely met earlier still (FY2022 works out to roughly 33.1% using operating income $119,437M plus D&A of about $11.1B), but I did not pull the FY2022 D&A from a primary document, so I anchored the resolution date on the FY2024 figures, which are primary-sourced. Note also the starting point of the claim checks out directionally: Apple's FY2020 EBITDA margin was about 28% ((66.3+11.1)/274.5), close to the ~29% he cited. No conflicting evidence found. Caveat for the scorer: EBITDA is not a GAAP-reported Apple line item, so the margin depends on the D&A definition used (cash-flow D&A here, which excludes share-based compensation); adding SBC would raise the margin further, and no reasonable variant puts it below 33%.

Sources

• AAPL: Why Apple Stock Will Continue to Outperform in 2021

  YouTube (Tom Nash) · 2021-03-03

  Source