Full record
HiteconomyThe Fed's quantitative tightening / restrictive policy will continue for longer than the market is currently pricing in
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Hiteconomy“the QT the quantitative tightening that the restrictive monetary policy by the FED has to continue for longer than what the market is currently pricing in”
The Fed's quantitative tightening / restrictive policy will continue for longer than the market is currently pricing in
- Made on
- 2023-02-16
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- +3.82
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2023-12-31
QT / restrictive policy remains in effect beyond the end-date implied by market pricing as of Feb 2023.
Criterion: QT / restrictive policy remains in effect beyond the end-date implied by market pricing as of Feb 2023. In mid-Feb 2023, fed-funds futures priced a terminal rate near ~5% with rate CUTS beginning in H2 2023. Actual path: the Fed hiked HIGHER (to 5.25-5.50% in July 2023), held with zero cuts through end-2023, and ran off its balance sheet throughout — the first cut came Sept 2024, roughly a year later than Feb-2023 pricing implied. Directionally unambiguous: restrictive policy clearly outlasted the Feb-2023-priced horizon. The one soft element is reconstructing the exact Feb-2023 market-implied end-date; the resolution does not hinge on a precise figure because policy ran materially longer under any reasonable reading of that pricing. resolved_on set to window close (2023-12-31).
Sources
New Data Shows Early Signs of Accelerating Inflation
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
The Fed resumed hiking in July 2023, taking the target range to 5.25%-5.50%, a 22-year high, and held there through the rest of 2023 with no cuts.
The Fed left rates unchanged at its September 2023 meeting and continued balance-sheet runoff (QT); the first rate cut did not come until September 2024.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+3.82- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The Fed's quantitative tightening / restrictive policy will…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-02-16
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources