Full record
75% rightmarketsTesla's share price reaches about $1,500 (pre-split, i.e. about $500 split-adjusted after the August 2022 3-for-1 split) by 2022-12-31.
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
75% rightmarkets“i think it's easily a traditional company which means the share price should be around fifteen hundred dollars by the end of next year”
Tesla's share price reaches about $1,500 (pre-split, i.e. about $500 split-adjusted after the August 2022 3-for-1 split) by 2022-12-31.
- Made on
- 2021-05-18
- Outcome
- 75% right
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.94
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2022-12-31
TSLA trades at or above $1,500 per share pre-split (equivalently $500 after the 3-for-1 split of 2022-08-25) at any point on or before 2022-12-31, using split-adjusted closing prices. Because the wording is 'around fifteen hundred', a peak within 5% below the target counts as a hit.
Miss even under the criterion's generous 5% tolerance. The maximum daily close in the window cannot exceed the maximum intraday high of $414.497 (about $1,243 pre-split), which is roughly 13% below the $475 tolerance threshold and 17% below the stated $500 / $1,500 target, so monthly-resolution data settles this without needing the daily series. Note the shape of the miss: the window peak came in November 2021, near TSLA's then all-time high, after which the stock fell about 65% into the December 2022 deadline, so the claim was furthest from true at the moment it was due. Cross-checked against Nasdaq consolidated monthly OHLC from the Interactive Brokers market-data feed, which matched (2021-11 high 414.497). The window used starts at the statement date 2021-05-18; the May 2021 monthly high ($235.33) is well below the threshold, so partial-month coverage at the start does not affect the result. No conflicting evidence found.
Sources
Michael Burry JUST Bet $500 Million Against TSLA [40% of His Portfolio]
YouTube (Tom Nash) ·
Evidence of what happened
Monthly split-adjusted OHLC for TSLA over 2021-05 through 2022-12: the highest price at any point in the window was $414.497 intraday (November 2021), equivalent to $1,243.49 pre-split. The highest monthly close was $381.587 (November 2021). Both fall short of the $500 post-split target and of the $475 threshold implied by the criterion's 5% tolerance.
Exact data endpoint queried (10-year monthly series, adjusted for the 3-for-1 split of 2022-08-25). Window maxima: max high 414.497 (2021-11), max monthly close 381.587 (2021-11). Prices fell sharply through 2022, with the December 2022 high at $198.92 (about $597 pre-split).
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+2.94- How sure they sounded
- 65%
- Outcome
- 75% right
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Tesla's share price reaches about $1,500 (pre-split, i.e. a…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2021-05-18
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources