Full record
50% rightgeopoliticsRussia's initial strategy will focus on bombing Ukrainian military airfields/outposts to pressure the government to flee, avoiding urban street combat.
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
50% rightgeopolitics“what putin is going to try to do right now is essentially try to topple this government without getting to a hand-to-hand combat on the streets of of ukraine he'll try to put pressure by bombing military airports and military outposts and basically try to get this government to leave”
Russia's initial strategy will focus on bombing Ukrainian military airfields/outposts to pressure the government to flee, avoiding urban street combat.
- Made on
- 2022-02-24
- Outcome
- 50% right
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.27
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2022-05-24
In the opening phase, Russia's campaign centers on strikes against Ukrainian military airfields/outposts aimed at forcing the government to flee, while avoiding urban street combat.
Compound claim resolves as a split within the opening-phase window: airfield/outpost-strike + force-the-government-to-flee = TRUE; 'avoiding urban street combat' = FALSE (Russia entered/attempted urban fights around Kyiv, Kharkiv and Mariupol from the outset). Scoring stage should treat as partially correct.
Sources
The Russian Invasion Begins (I Didn't Think It Would Come To This)
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
TRUE portion: the opening phase did center on missile/air strikes against Ukrainian airfields and military infrastructure — Boryspil, Hostomel (Antonov), Kharkiv, Ozerne, Kulbakino, Chuhuiv, Kramatorsk and Chornobaivka airbases were struck 2/24, and the Hostomel air-assault was an explicit decapitation attempt aimed at forcing Kyiv's government to flee.
FALSE portion: Russia did NOT avoid urban street combat in the opening phase — it simultaneously drove ground columns on multiple fronts toward Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Mariupol, and street fighting was reported in Bakhmut as early as 4 March 2022 and in Kharkiv's outskirts within days, contradicting the 'avoiding urban street combat' element.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+2.27- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- 50% right
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Russia's initial strategy will focus on bombing Ukrainian m…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-02-24
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources