Full record
HitmarketsThe S&P 500 will experience at least one 5% correction in 2024
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitmarkets“you're going to have Corrections especially once you had a two-month runup like we had there's bound to be a correction this thing will correct it's inevitable in every good year the S&P 500 has it has three 5% Corrections”
The S&P 500 will experience at least one 5% correction in 2024
- Made on
- 2024-02-26
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-04-19
The S&P 500 records at least one ≥5% peak-to-trough decline during calendar 2024.
Criterion (at least one ≥5% peak-to-trough decline during calendar 2024) is satisfied. At least two qualifying corrections occurred: ~5.5% (late Mar–Apr 2024) and ~8.5% (Jul–Aug 2024). resolved_on set to the April 2024 trough, the first point the ≥5% threshold was met. Outcome value not assigned (later stage).
Sources
Holy Crap! Tom Lee New Stock Market Prediction is MIND-BLOWING
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
The S&P 500's first significant pullback of 2024 was a ~5.5% peak-to-trough decline from its March 28, 2024 high to its April 18–19, 2024 low — already meeting the ≥5% threshold within calendar 2024.
A larger correction followed: the S&P 500 fell ~8.5% peak-to-trough from its July 16, 2024 all-time high (~5,670) into the early-August 2024 low, a second ≥5% correction in the same calendar year.
Corrections
- horizon type: Verbatim contains no date/'2024'; the deadline is inferred from the this-year framing ('in every good year the S&P 500 has ... three 5% corrections'), so per the deadline table this is inferred, not explicit.
- Prediction timeframe: Basis must quote the phrase that triggered the inference; 'in 2024' is not in the quote.
Effect on the score
+2- How sure they sounded
- 97%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The S&P 500 will experience at least one 5% correction in 2…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-02-26
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources