Full record
MissmarketsElon Musk's acquisition of Twitter completes at a renegotiated price of roughly $42 to $45 per share, by October 2022.
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Missmarkets“so the deal has an expiration date which is october this year so at the latest october is when the deal either gets done or it gets cancelled now right now it seems like the deal will get done at a lower price probably around 42 43 44 45 give or take”
Elon Musk's acquisition of Twitter completes at a renegotiated price of roughly $42 to $45 per share, by October 2022.
- Made on
- 2022-05-26
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +0.46
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2022-10-27
The Twitter acquisition completes on or before 2022-10-31 at a renegotiated price per share between $42 and $45 inclusive. Completion at the original $54.20, or no completion, resolves the claim false. This is a distinct claim from his April 2022 call that the deal simply closes: the price leg is the substance here.
Both legs of the criterion are directly addressed by the primary filing. Timing leg: the deal did complete on or before 2022-10-31 (closed 2022-10-27). Price leg, which the criterion identifies as the substance of this record: the merger consideration was $54.20 per share, the original agreed price, with no renegotiation into the $42 to $45 band. The criterion states explicitly that completion at the original $54.20 resolves the claim false. No conflicting evidence found; the price is stated verbatim in the company's own 8-K. No outcome value assigned here per stage scope.
Sources
Tesla Stock at $650: Why I Just Doubled My Position
YouTube - Tom Nash (@TomNashTV) ·
Evidence of what happened
Twitter, Inc. Form 8-K (date of earliest event 2022-10-27, filed 2022-10-31), Item 2.01 Completion of Acquisition: "On October 27, 2022, pursuant to the terms of the Merger Agreement, the Merger was consummated." The 8-K defines the price paid: each issued and outstanding share of Twitter common stock "was canceled and converted into the right to receive $54.20 in cash, without interest (the 'Merger Consideration')". This is the original April 2022 price, not a renegotiated $42 to $45.
Twitter, Inc. EDGAR submissions index confirms the surrounding closing mechanics: Form 25-NSE (NYSE delisting notification) filed 2022-10-28, and Form 15-12G (deregistration) filed 2022-11-07, both consistent with a completed take-private on 2022-10-27.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+0.46- How sure they sounded
- 65%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Elon Musk's acquisition of Twitter completes at a renegotia…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-05-26
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources