Full record
MissmarketsUS stocks stage a crazy bull run over the next six to eight months (through roughly October 2022).
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Missmarkets“so what i see for the next six to seven to eight months depends on how long it takes for the fed to actually understand they have no choice but to raise more aggressively is a crazy bull run”
US stocks stage a crazy bull run over the next six to eight months (through roughly October 2022).
- Made on
- 2022-02-11
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- -1.78
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2022-10-11
The S&P 500 rises at least 10% above its 2022-02-11 close (4,418.64) at some point on or before 2022-10-11. A flat or lower index over the window resolves the claim false.
Criterion is precisely operationalized and fully checkable: anchor close verified at 4,418.64 (matches the criterion's stated figure to the cent), threshold 4,860.50, best achieved level 4,637.30 intraday. The criterion's explicit fallback clause ('A flat or lower index over the window resolves the claim false') is squarely engaged — the index ended the window near its low. No conflicting credible evidence; no ambiguity requiring human review. No outcome value assigned here per stage scope.
Sources
Inflation, Interest Rates, Supply Chains and the Stock Market in 2022
YouTube — Tom Nash ·
Evidence of what happened
Daily OHLC for the S&P 500 (^GSPC) confirms the criterion's anchor exactly: the 2022-02-11 close was 4,418.64. The 10% threshold is therefore 4,860.50. Between 2022-02-11 and 2022-10-11 the highest intraday print was 4,637.30 on 2022-03-29 (highest close 4,631.60), a maximum gain of 4.95% above the anchor — never reaching the required 10%.
Over the same window the index went materially lower rather than flat: the lowest intraday print between 2022-02-11 and 2022-10-11 was 3,568.45, reached on the deadline date 2022-10-11 itself — about 19.2% below the 4,418.64 anchor. The index continued to a 2022 intraday low of 3,491.58 on 2022-10-13, two days after the deadline.
Human-readable historical price table for the S&P 500 across the February-October 2022 window, for independent verification of the anchor close and the window's daily highs and lows.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-1.78- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
US stocks stage a crazy bull run over the next six to eight…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-02-11
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources