Full record
HitgeopoliticsIf Russia invades Ukraine, it will not be a swift sweep but a prolonged and bloody war.
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitgeopolitics“if he conquers Ukraine, which I believe he will if he goes to war, I don't think he's going to be a complete, you know, walkover like people think it is. He's not going to sweep them in four games. It's going to be a bloody affair.”
If Russia invades Ukraine, it will not be a swift sweep but a prolonged and bloody war.
- Made on
- 2022-02-13
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 5 / 5
- Effect on score
- +4.77
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2025-02-13
Conditional on invasion: active hostilities persist well beyond a few weeks with heavy casualties/attrition, rather than a quick Russian victory.
Antecedent (invasion) occurred Feb 24 2022, so the conditional is triggered. Outcome unambiguously supportive of the claim across the entire window through the 2025-02-13 deadline; no credible counter-evidence (no swift Russian victory ever materialized).
Sources
What Putin REALLY Wants? (And Why He Isn't Bluffing)
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Condition met: Russia's Feb 24 2022 full-scale invasion did NOT produce a swift sweep. As of the ~3-year mark, the war was a grinding, attritional conflict — Russia advancing only 'mile by mile' through Donbas at enormous cost, with NATO recording ~900,000 Russian troop casualties (up to ~250,000 killed) and hundreds of thousands of casualties on both sides. Directly matches the criterion (hostilities persisting well beyond weeks with heavy attrition, not a quick Russian victory).
Third-anniversary reporting (Feb 2025) confirms active hostilities and the deadliest civilian year (>2,500 Ukrainian civilians killed in 2025 conflict-related violence per UN-tracked figures); war still ongoing three years on with only incremental territorial change.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+4.77- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 5 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
If Russia invades Ukraine, it will not be a swift sweep but…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-02-13
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources