Full record
MissgeopoliticsThe US-China audit inspection deal will not be fully implemented; more issues will arise
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Missgeopolitics“we will find out in about a month which will be interesting to see i doubt it that they will fully go through this i foresee although who knows i foresee more issues with this”
The US-China audit inspection deal will not be fully implemented; more issues will arise
- Made on
- 2022-08-29
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +0.46
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2022-12-15
The US-China audit-inspection agreement is not fully/smoothly implemented and further disputes arise within ~1 month
Criterion is anchored to a ~1-month window (deadline 2022-09-29). Within that window the deal was implemented on schedule — inspectors were on the ground in Hong Kong by mid-September and inspections proceeded without a reported breakdown or fresh dispute, contradicting the prediction. The definitive falsification came 2022-12-15 when the PCAOB formally certified complete/unfettered access; resolved_on set to that confirmation date. Caveat for the later scoring stage (not affecting this resolution): the 2022 determination only reset the HFCAA three-year clock, so 'fully implemented' was a point-in-time success, not a permanent guarantee — but no further disputes arose in or near the record's window.
Sources
China and U.S agree deal on audit dispute - time to invest in China?
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
PCAOB inspectors arrived on-site in Hong Kong in mid-September 2022 (within the ~1-month window after the 2022-08-26 Statement of Protocol) and conducted a nine-week inspection Sept–Nov 2022. No public breakdown, withdrawal, or new dispute over the deal was reported during the ~1-month window ending 2022-09-29 — implementation began on schedule.
On 2022-12-15 the PCAOB issued a determination that it had secured COMPLETE access to inspect and investigate audit firms in mainland China and Hong Kong for the first time — full work papers with no redactions, ability to retain/transfer documents, and direct testimony access. SEC Chair Gensler's same-day statement confirmed the vacated 2021 non-access determinations. This is the opposite of the predicted 'not fully/smoothly implemented, more issues arise.'
SEC statement (2022-12-15) on PCAOB's determinations regarding public accounting firms in China, corroborating that complete access was obtained and forced-delisting risk temporarily removed.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+0.46- How sure they sounded
- 65%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The US-China audit inspection deal will not be fully implem…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-08-29
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources