Full record
MisstechTesla's FSD will achieve monopoly status in autonomous driving within about 1 to 1.5 years
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Misstech“FSD is probably year year and a half away that's going to be a monopoly”
Tesla's FSD will achieve monopoly status in autonomous driving within about 1 to 1.5 years
- Made on
- 2024-04-03
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- -1.33
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2025-09-29
Tesla FSD holds a de facto monopoly (dominant, effectively unrivaled) position in autonomous/self-driving by ~2025-09-29
Criterion: Tesla FSD holds a de facto monopoly (dominant, effectively unrivaled) in autonomous/self-driving by ~2025-09-29. Evidence shows Tesla was not even the market leader in driverless ride-hail (Waymo was), and multiple credible rivals operated commercially. Clear miss; no monopoly existed.
Sources
Evidence of what happened
As of 2025, Waymo (Alphabet) remained the dominant U.S. robotaxi/autonomous-ride operator; NBC News reported Waymo dominated the U.S. robotaxi market. Tesla launched only a limited, supervised 'Robotaxi'-branded service in Austin (June 2025) and later the SF Bay Area, with human safety supervisors still present in the vehicles as of late 2025. Tesla FSD is a supervised (hands-on/eyes-on) ADAS, not an unrivaled autonomous-driving monopoly.
Robotaxi market analyses through 2025 list multiple active competitors (Waymo, Baidu Apollo Go, Zoox, Cruise, Tesla, etc.); Baidu's Apollo Go dominated China. This is a fragmented, multi-player market, not a de facto monopoly held by Tesla FSD.
Corrections
- Date: Verbatim ('year year and a half away') exists only in q2yxl_-3JR4 (upload 2024-04-03); the 2024-03-29 video says the differently-worded 'coming very very soon'.
- horizon deadline: 18-month horizon re-anchored to corrected made_on 2024-04-03.
Effect on the score
-1.33- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Tesla's FSD will achieve monopoly status in autonomous driv…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-04-03
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources