Full record
HiteconomyThe Federal Reserve will announce the start of QE tapering by December 2021 (unable to hold policy to February 2022).
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Hiteconomy“i think we probably see it in november at the latest december”
The Federal Reserve will announce the start of QE tapering by December 2021 (unable to hold policy to February 2022).
- Made on
- 2021-08-27
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- +3.68
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2021-11-03
The Federal Reserve announces the start of QE tapering on or before 2021-12-31.
Criterion (Fed announces start of QE tapering on or before 2021-12-31) met. Announcement 2021-11-03.
Sources
Why Investors Losing Patience With Cathie Wood and ARK
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
At its Nov 2–3, 2021 FOMC meeting the Federal Reserve announced it would begin tapering its asset purchases (QE) later that month, reducing purchases by $15bn/month ($10bn Treasuries + $5bn MBS). Announced 2021-11-03, well before the 2021-12-31 deadline.
St. Louis Fed / CRS confirm the FOMC decided at its November 2021 meeting that the taper test had been met and began reducing the pace of asset purchases in November 2021.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+3.68- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The Federal Reserve will announce the start of QE tapering…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2021-08-27
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources