Full record
HiteconomyFirst Republic Bank fails (enters FDIC receivership)
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Hiteconomy“it's headed to fdac receivership that's game over”
First Republic Bank fails (enters FDIC receivership)
- Made on
- 2023-04-28
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- +3.82
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2023-05-01
First Republic Bank is placed into FDIC receivership / fails within the window; falsified if it survives as an independent going concern
Criterion met precisely: FDIC receivership occurred 2023-05-01, three days after the prediction was made and well inside the 90-day window. Bank ceased to exist as an independent going concern (absorbed by JPMorgan Chase). Unambiguous true outcome; no conflicting evidence.
Sources
First Republic is Done. More Banks To Follow.
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
On 2023-05-01, First Republic Bank was closed by the California Department of Financial Protection and Innovation and the FDIC was appointed Receiver. This occurred within the record's window (2023-04-28 to 2023-07-28), directly satisfying the written criterion (FDIC receivership / failure). It was the second-largest bank failure in US history at the time.
JPMorgan Chase press release (2023-05-01) confirms it acquired the substantial majority of assets and assumed certain liabilities of First Republic Bank following the FDIC receivership/auction — the bank did NOT survive as an independent going concern, confirming the falsification clause was not triggered.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+3.82- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
First Republic Bank fails (enters FDIC receivership)- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-04-28
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources