Full record
MissmarketsU.S. equity markets (S&P 500) will sell off on Monday 2024-07-22 in reaction to Biden's withdrawal from the presidential race.
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Missmarkets“I think the markets will be scared because of all this uncertainty I think the markets will be anxious and I think people will sell out”
U.S. equity markets (S&P 500) will sell off on Monday 2024-07-22 in reaction to Biden's withdrawal from the presidential race.
- Made on
- 2024-07-21
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Effect on score
- +0.31
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-07-22
A major U.S. equity index (S&P 500) closes lower on 2024-07-22 than its prior (2024-07-19) close — i.e., a net decline on the Monday session.
Prior close (2024-07-19) 5,505.00; deadline-day close (2024-07-22) 5,564.41. Net change positive, so the written criterion (index closes lower on the Monday session) was not satisfied. Outcome value assignment deferred to the scoring stage per instructions. Closing values agree across FRED, Yahoo Finance and Seeking Alpha historical data; no conflicting credible evidence.
Sources
BREAKING - BIDEN DROPS OUT OF RACE
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
S&P 500 closed at 5,505.00 on Fri 2024-07-19 and rose to 5,564.41 on Mon 2024-07-22 (+59.41 pts, +1.08%). The index closed HIGHER on the Monday session, so the criterion of a net decline was NOT met.
Contemporaneous reporting: U.S. stocks rose across the board Monday 2024-07-22 following Biden's withdrawal; all three major averages ended higher, the Nasdaq posting its best day since June. Confirms an up session, not a sell-off.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+0.31- How sure they sounded
- 65%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
U.S. equity markets (S&P 500) will sell off on Monday 2024-…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-07-21
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources