Full record
MissenergyWithin five years Tesla is supplying batteries to other manufacturers and has a direct pipeline to the raw materials needed to make them (by 2025-10-15).
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Missenergy“so within five years not only test is going to be providing batteries for everybody else tesla is going to have a direct pipeline to the raw materials required to make these batteries”
Within five years Tesla is supplying batteries to other manufacturers and has a direct pipeline to the raw materials needed to make them (by 2025-10-15).
- Made on
- 2020-10-15
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- -1.33
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2025-10-15
Resolves TRUE only if BOTH hold by 2025-10-15: (a) Tesla publicly supplies battery cells or packs to at least one third-party manufacturer as a commercial supplier, and (b) Tesla holds direct upstream raw-material supply for those batteries (owned or operated mining/refining assets, or direct off-take contracts with miners rather than purchases from cell makers). Failure of either conjunct resolves it FALSE.
The criterion is a conjunction and both conjuncts were tested. Conjunct (a) — Tesla publicly supplying battery cells or packs to at least one third-party manufacturer as a commercial supplier — is not met: as of the deadline Tesla's own SEC-filed description of its business is that of a cell buyer (Panasonic, CATL) and a maker of finished vehicles and Tesla-branded storage products. Its historical pack-supply deals with Daimler/Toyota ended years before the prediction window and were not revived. Conjunct (b) is genuinely arguable in Tesla's favour and should NOT be presented as cleanly failed: Tesla's owned Texas lithium refinery did not begin operations until January 2026 (per the 10-K, i.e. after the deadline), but the criterion's alternative branch — 'direct off-take contracts with miners rather than purchases from cell makers' — is plausibly satisfied by Tesla's publicly reported lithium off-take agreements with miners and refiners (e.g. Piedmont Lithium, Sichuan Yahua, Ganfeng), none of which appear by name in the 10-K text. Because (a) fails and the criterion states 'Failure of either conjunct resolves it FALSE', the conjunction fails regardless of how (b) is judged, so the (b) ambiguity does not affect the resolution.
Sources
Tesla is a $2 Trillion Company?
YouTube - Tom Nash ·
Evidence of what happened
Tesla FY2025 Form 10-K (filed 2026-01-29), the annual report spanning the 2025-10-15 deadline. Tesla describes itself as a PURCHASER of cells, not a supplier: 'We are dependent on the continued supply of lithium-ion battery cells for our vehicles and energy storage products... Currently, we rely on suppliers such as Panasonic and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Limited (CATL) for these cells.' The Supply Chain section likewise says Tesla has 'developed close relationships with key partners that supply battery cells' TO Tesla. The filing discloses no business of selling battery cells or packs to any third-party manufacturer; the only battery products sold to outside parties are Tesla's own branded end products, Powerwall and Megapack (energy-storage systems sold to residential, commercial, industrial and utility customers), not cells or packs supplied to another manufacturer. Searches of the full filing text return zero hits for 'offtake', 'off-take', 'Piedmont', or 'mining companies'.
Same FY2025 10-K on upstream integration: Tesla says it strives 'to execute long-term supply contracts for such materials at competitive pricing when feasible' and continues 'to localize and de-risk our supply chains across regions, including through vertical integration where possible, such as our in-house lithium refinery in Texas, which began operations in January 2026.' Tesla's own filing therefore dates the start of its owned refining asset to January 2026 — approximately three months AFTER the 2025-10-15 deadline.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-1.33- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Within five years Tesla is supplying batteries to other man…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2020-10-15
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources