Full record
25% rightmarketsUS real estate will fall roughly 20-25% (peak-to-trough) during 2023, absent a dramatic Fed easing.
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
25% rightmarkets“You're probably more likely looking at a drawdown of anywhere from 20 to 25, like we've seen the vulgar days, than the proper full-blown market crash.”
US real estate will fall roughly 20-25% (peak-to-trough) during 2023, absent a dramatic Fed easing.
- Made on
- 2022-12-28
- Outcome
- 25% right
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- +1.58
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2023-12-31
A US home-price index declines ~20-25% peak-to-trough over 2023 (Volcker-1981-style drawdown, short of a full crash).
Criterion required a ~20-25% peak-to-trough US home-price decline over 2023. Actual worst 2023 drawdown (from the June-2022 peak) was only ~5.1%, reached in Jan 2023, after which prices climbed to new highs. Prediction's magnitude clearly not met. Deadline 2023-12-31 passed; full-year Case-Shiller data confirmed.
Sources
The Real Estate Crash 2023
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index peaked in June 2022 and bottomed in January 2023 only ~5.1% below that peak — nowhere near a 20-25% drawdown. This ~5% peak-to-trough decline is the largest of the cycle.
By June 2023 the National Index had recovered to within 0.02% of its year-ago level (a fresh high), having risen 4.7% over the first half of 2023 — i.e. prices rose through 2023 rather than falling 20-25%.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+1.58- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- 25% right
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
US real estate will fall roughly 20-25% (peak-to-trough) du…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-12-28
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources