Full record
HittechThe chip shortage and elevated inflation will not be resolved by the end of 2021
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Hittech“this thing isn't going to be over this year”
The chip shortage and elevated inflation will not be resolved by the end of 2021
- Made on
- 2021-02-28
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- +3.99
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2021-12-31
The semiconductor shortage and elevated inflation both remain unresolved (ongoing) as of 2021-12-31
Both conjuncts of the criterion held as of 2021-12-31: (1) elevated inflation ongoing (7.0% CPI, a ~40-year high) and (2) the semiconductor shortage ongoing (still constraining vehicle/electronics supply, extending into 2022). Neither was 'resolved' by year-end. resolved_on = deadline.
Sources
Why The Global Computer Chip Shortage Happened (And Why It Means Trouble)
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
US CPI rose 7.0% year-over-year in December 2021, the fastest pace since June 1982 - elevated inflation was clearly unresolved/ongoing at year-end 2021.
December 2021 CPI reported at 7% annual, highest since 1982; supply-chain disruptions (incl. semiconductors) cited as drivers. Used-car prices up 37.3% in 2021, reflecting the ongoing chip-driven vehicle shortage.
The global semiconductor shortage was widely reported as unresolved at end of 2021 and forecast by industry (and it did) to persist through 2022-2023, continuing to constrain auto and electronics production.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+3.99- How sure they sounded
- 97%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The chip shortage and elevated inflation will not be resolv…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2021-02-28
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources