Full record
MissmarketsThe US stock market will undergo a correction around end-August / early-September 2021, driven by higher interest rates.
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Missmarkets“Probably around end of August, beginning of September, there's going to be a correction based on higher interest rates. It is inevitable.”
The US stock market will undergo a correction around end-August / early-September 2021, driven by higher interest rates.
- Made on
- 2021-05-06
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- -3.53
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2021-09-30
A major US equity index (e.g. S&P 500) experiences a correction (peak-to-trough decline ≥10%) in the end-August to end-September 2021 window.
Criterion requires a ≥10% peak-to-trough decline in a major US equity index in the late-Aug to end-Sep 2021 window. The largest S&P 500 drawdown in that window was ~5%, below the 10% correction threshold. The prediction's specified event did not occur. Direction: did not happen. [ADJUDICATION 2026-07-26: evidence[0].url is a pre-window (2021-08-03) Nasdaq forecast article that does not itself document the September 2021 outcome. The resolution direction is independently confirmed by the market record (no ≥10% S&P 500 correction in the window; largest drawdown ~5%), and evidence[0].summary already states the correct outcome. Citation should be replaced with a source covering the resolved window; record remains validly scoreable.]
Sources
Breaking: Warren Buffet Warns About Inflationary Stock Market Crash
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
The S&P 500's decline during the end-August to end-September 2021 window peaked at roughly -5.2% (index fell from a record close near 4536 on 2021-09-02 to a September trough near 4300), driven by debt-ceiling wrangling and rate concerns. This did NOT reach the 10% peak-to-trough threshold required for a correction. Coverage noted the S&P 500 had not seen a 10%+ correction since September 2020.
Corrections
- resolution notes: Cited URL is a pre-window forecast that cannot substantiate the September 2021 outcome. Direction is confirmed; flag the citation weakness without corrupting the url field or excluding a valid scoreable record.
Effect on the score
-3.53- How sure they sounded
- 97%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The US stock market will undergo a correction around end-Au…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2021-05-06
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources