Full record
HiteconomyChina's economy suffers a significant slowdown over the following year to eighteen months (through 2023-03-21).
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Hiteconomy“whether China bails out this company or not, we're going to see a massive slowdown in the Chinese economy for the next year, year and a half. And that's why I think the next year, year and a half in China are going to be challenging. The economy is going to take a hit. It's going to slow down, not to a screeching halt, but significantly.”
China's economy suffers a significant slowdown over the following year to eighteen months (through 2023-03-21).
- Made on
- 2021-09-21
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- +3.02
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2023-01-17
China's economy slows significantly but does not stop, between 2021-09-21 and 2023-03-21 — operationalized as official real GDP growth for calendar 2022 coming in below 5% year-on-year (against roughly 8.4% for 2021 and a pre-pandemic trend near 6%), while remaining positive. A 2022 print at or above 5% falsifies the claim; an outright contraction would fail the 'not to a screeching halt' qualifier and is flagged for human review.
The operationalized test is met on both limbs: calendar-2022 official real GDP growth came in at 3.0% year-on-year, below the 5% threshold, while remaining clearly positive, so the 'not a screeching halt' qualifier holds and no human-review flag is triggered. The 8.4%-for-2021 baseline cited in the criterion matches the official series (World Bank reports 8.57% on revised levels); the slowdown is roughly 5 points. Resolved_on is the NBS publication date 2023-01-17, which falls before the 2023-03-21 deadline, so the outcome was determinable within the window without needing later revisions. NBS and World Bank differ only by 0.13 points (3.0% vs 3.13%, a level-revision artifact) — not a conflict, since both fall on the same side of the 5% line.
Sources
Evergrande Crisis Getting Worse: Big Problem For The U.S. Economy?
YouTube - Tom Nash (@TomNashTV) ·
Evidence of what happened
National Bureau of Statistics of China official release, 'National Economy Withstood Pressure and Reached a New Level in 2022', published 2023-01-17: China's GDP was 121,020.7 billion yuan in 2022, an increase of 3.0 percent over the previous year at constant prices. That 3.0% print is below the criterion's 5% falsification bar and is positive, not a contraction.
World Bank World Development Indicators (NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG), China annual real GDP growth: 2019 6.07%, 2020 2.34%, 2021 8.57%, 2022 3.13%, 2023 5.42%. Independently corroborates a 2022 growth rate near 3% — positive, roughly 5.4 points below 2021, and about 3 points below the pre-pandemic trend near 6%.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+3.02- How sure they sounded
- 65%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
China's economy suffers a significant slowdown over the fol…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2021-09-21
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources