Full record
MissmarketsThe market recovers to its pre-selloff level within about two to three weeks (by ~2025-01-09); the dip is temporary
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Missmarkets“I think we'll be back in anywhere from two days to two, three weeks. We're going to be right back where we started before this freakout happened.”
The market recovers to its pre-selloff level within about two to three weeks (by ~2025-01-09); the dip is temporary
- Made on
- 2024-12-19
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +0.46
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2025-01-09
The S&P 500 returns to or above its pre-selloff (pre-2024-12-18) level by 2025-01-09.
Prediction (recovery to pre-selloff level within ~2-3 weeks, by ~2025-01-09) is NOT borne out: the index was still ~2-4% below 6,050.61 across the window and was in fact declining into mid-January. The S&P 500 only reclaimed and exceeded the pre-selloff level later, in late January 2025 (record highs ~6,100 around Jan 23-24), well after the stated window.
Sources
The Investment Opportunity of a Lifetime (Don't Miss It)
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Pre-selloff level: S&P 500 closed at 6,050.61 on 2024-12-17; on the 2024-12-18 FOMC day it fell to 5,872.16 as the Fed signaled fewer 2025 cuts.
Through the deadline window the S&P 500 did NOT regain 6,050.61: it peaked only around ~6,040 (Dec 24, 2024) before falling back; Jan 8, 2025 close 5,918.25; markets closed Jan 9, 2025 (national day of mourning for President Carter); Jan 10, 2025 close 5,827.04. FRED SP500 series confirms no close at/above 6,050.61 by 2025-01-09.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+0.46- How sure they sounded
- 65%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The market recovers to its pre-selloff level within about t…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-12-19
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources