Full record
HitmarketsApple (AAPL) stock rises roughly 30% from its 2021-03-03 level.
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitmarkets“let me make a case for you to explain why apple today has a 30 upside and it still makes a whole lot of sense in the post pandemic universe”
Apple (AAPL) stock rises roughly 30% from its 2021-03-03 level.
- Made on
- 2021-03-03
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.86
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2021-11-19
Resolves TRUE if AAPL's share price reaches at least 130% of its 2021-03-03 closing price (split-adjusted) at any point on or before 2024-03-03; FALSE if that level is never reached in the window.
Direction of evidence is TRUE, reached about 27 months before the deadline. Baseline 2021-03-03 close $122.06; threshold 130% = $158.68; first crossed 2021-11-19 (close $160.55, high $161.02). No stock split occurred inside the window (Apple's last split was August 2020, before the baseline date), so the split-adjustment clause in the criterion is a no-op and raw prices are used consistently on both sides of the comparison. Robustness check: on a dividend-adjusted basis the conclusion is unchanged (adjusted baseline $118.78, threshold $154.41, adjusted close on 2021-11-19 was $156.96), so the record resolves the same way whichever price basis is used - only the exact crossing date could shift by a few sessions on the dividend-adjusted series, and I used the plain split-adjusted close as the criterion specifies. resolved_on is set to the first crossing date rather than the deadline, since this is an 'at any point on or before' condition that was satisfied early. Same data-source caveat as the TSLA record: Yahoo Finance, because stooq served a bot-detection challenge and the WebSearch budget was exhausted; the margin is far too large for vendor differences to matter.
Sources
AAPL: Why Apple Stock Will Continue to Outperform in 2021
YouTube (Tom Nash) ·
Evidence of what happened
Yahoo Finance daily OHLC for AAPL: close of $122.06 on 2021-03-03 (the criterion's baseline), making the 130% threshold $158.68. AAPL first closed above that threshold on 2021-11-19 at $160.55 (intraday high $161.02) - the same session was also the first intraday touch, so no earlier crossing exists on either basis.
AAPL's maximum intraday high within the window was $199.62 on 2023-12-14, roughly 63.5% above the 2021-03-03 baseline, confirming the threshold was cleared with a wide margin and sustained rather than grazed.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+2.86- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Apple (AAPL) stock rises roughly 30% from its 2021-03-03 le…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2021-03-03
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources