Full record
50% righttechGoogle Cloud generates $100B in annual revenue and is profitable by end of 2025.
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
50% righttech“by 2025 this thing is going to make 100 billion a year and will be profitable probably”
Google Cloud generates $100B in annual revenue and is profitable by end of 2025.
- Made on
- 2022-07-31
- Outcome
- 50% right
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.46
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2026-02-04
Google Cloud reaches $100B in annual revenue AND is operating-profitable by end of 2025.
Compound (AND) claim: $100B annual revenue AND operating-profitable by end of 2025. Second condition satisfied (operating income $13.91B), but the first fails decisively (FY2025 revenue $58.7B, ~59% of the $100B target). The conjunction is therefore not satisfied. Confirmed by Alphabet's FY2025 10-K / earnings release published 2026-02-04 (resolved_on). No outcome value assigned.
Sources
Google Q2 Financials Review | Tom Nash
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Revenue leg FAILS: Google Cloud full-year 2025 revenue was $58.7B (up from $43.23B in 2024) — well below the $100B target. Even the Q4 2025 exit run-rate (Q4 revenue $17.7B, +48% YoY; ~$70B annualized) was below $100B.
Profitability leg MET: Google Cloud FY2025 segment operating income was $13.91B (margin ~23.7%), up from $6.11B in 2024 — clearly operating-profitable.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+2.46- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- 50% right
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Google Cloud generates $100B in annual revenue and is profi…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-07-31
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources