Full record
HiteconomyUS inflation will exceed 5.5% by the end of 2022.
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Hiteconomy“i had this bet with my partner justin we went over under five and a half percent inflation by the end of the year he took the under and the loser is going to have to shave his head”
US inflation will exceed 5.5% by the end of 2022.
- Made on
- 2022-02-10
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- +3.82
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2022-12-31
US headline CPI (YoY) prints above 5.5% through/at end of 2022 (per the over/under bet framing).
Criterion (headline CPI YoY above 5.5% through/at end of 2022) is clearly satisfied — the Dec 2022 reading was 6.5% and no 2022 month fell below ~7.5% until late-year moderation still left it above 5.5%. Resolved TRUE-direction; no outcome value assigned.
Sources
Inflation Worse Than Expected.
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
US headline CPI (YoY) stayed well above 5.5% for every month of 2022: ranged from ~7.5% (Jan) up to a 9.1% peak (June, BLS) and 6.5% at the Dec 2022 reading. The end-of-2022 print (6.5% YoY) clearly exceeds the 5.5% over/under line.
June 2022 peak of 9.1% YoY corroborated by contemporary reporting; inflation remained elevated (>6%) through year-end.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+3.82- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
US inflation will exceed 5.5% by the end of 2022.- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-02-10
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources