Full record
MisseconomyThe Federal Reserve will make no rate cut before Q4 2024 (first cut no earlier than October 2024)
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Misseconomy“I don't think we're going to see rate Cuts in this climate until Q4 of this year I think until September there's nothing to talk about rate Cuts”
The Federal Reserve will make no rate cut before Q4 2024 (first cut no earlier than October 2024)
- Made on
- 2024-02-14
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +0.46
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-09-18
The Fed's first 2024 rate cut occurs no earlier than 2024-10-01 (no cut announced before then).
Criterion required the first 2024 cut to be no earlier than 2024-10-01. The first cut landed Sept 18, 2024 — before that threshold. Fully resolved on primary Fed data. No outcome value assigned.
Sources
It's OVER | Selling ALL My Stocks
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
On Sept 18, 2024 the FOMC cut the federal funds target range by 50 bps to 4.75%–5.00% — its first cut since 2020. This first 2024 cut occurred before the criterion's earliest-allowed date of 2024-10-01.
FOMC official statement/implementation, Sept 18, 2024, confirms the 1/2 percentage point reduction effective Sept 19, 2024.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+0.46- How sure they sounded
- 65%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The Federal Reserve will make no rate cut before Q4 2024 (f…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-02-14
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources