Full record
HitmarketsThe stock market will be positive over the 12 months following the September 2024 Federal Reserve rate cut.
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitmarkets“the stock market is always 6 to 12 months ahead of the actual economy and if that's the case the stock market is going to be in a positive trend for the next 12 months”
The stock market will be positive over the 12 months following the September 2024 Federal Reserve rate cut.
- Made on
- 2024-09-17
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.86
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2025-09-17
The S&P 500 closes higher on 2025-09-17 than at the September 2024 rate cut (net positive over the 12-month window).
Criterion MET. Whether the baseline is taken as the 2024-09-18 announcement-day close (5,618.26) or nearby mid-September 2024 levels (~5,630-5,760), the 2025-09-17 close of 6,600.35 is well above it. Net 12-month return was strongly positive (~+17%).
Sources
A Once in a Lifetime Financial Event Is Here
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Baseline: the September 2024 Fed rate cut (50 bps, announced at the 2024-09-17/18 FOMC meeting) - the S&P 500 closed at 5,618.26 on 2024-09-18, the rate-cut announcement day.
Endpoint: the S&P 500 closed at 6,600.35 on 2025-09-17 (the day of the next FOMC decision, one year later). That is roughly +17-18% above the September 2024 rate-cut level, i.e., clearly net positive over the 12-month window.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+2.86- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The stock market will be positive over the 12 months follow…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-09-17
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources