Full record
HitgeopoliticsIf it escalates to full war, a Russian invasion of Ukraine will be the largest armed conflict in Europe since World War II.
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitgeopolitics“It's going to be the biggest war in Europe since 1945.”
If it escalates to full war, a Russian invasion of Ukraine will be the largest armed conflict in Europe since World War II.
- Made on
- 2022-02-21
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 5 / 5
- Effect on score
- +4.77
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2022-02-24
Conditional on full invasion: the war becomes the largest armed conflict in Europe since WWII by scale of forces, casualties, and territory involved.
Both the conditional trigger (full war) and the substantive criterion (largest by forces, casualties, and territory since WWII) are met and uncontested across primary/expert sources. resolved_on set to the invasion date; the 'largest since WWII' characterization held continuously through and past the 2025-02-21 deadline.
Sources
Did Putin Just declare War on Ukraine? This is not good…
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine on 2022-02-24, satisfying the antecedent ('if it escalates to full war'). It is authoritatively and near-universally described as the largest armed conflict / ground war in Europe since World War II.
Scale of forces/casualties/territory confirms 'largest since WWII': CSIS estimates Russia suffered up to ~1.4M casualties (~450k deaths) — the highest battlefield death toll of any major power since WWII — with combined casualties exceeding 2 million by 2026 and Ukraine occupied across ~18–20% of its territory.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+4.77- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 5 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
If it escalates to full war, a Russian invasion of Ukraine…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-02-21
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources