Full record
HitmarketsPeloton's stock price will rise above its current level.
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitmarkets“i think the price will go up i think the usage rates will go up i think that this is temporary”
Peloton's stock price will rise above its current level.
- Made on
- 2021-09-05
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.27
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2021-09-09
Peloton (PTON) share price exceeds its 2021-09-05 level at some point within the 36-month window.
Criterion is a 'rise above at some point within 36 months' (touch-once) bar, not an end-of-window comparison. Reference level = 2021-09-03 close $98.56 (2021-09-05 was a non-trading Sunday). PTON exceeded that level on the first trading day after the Sept 6 Labor Day holiday sequence (first qualifying close 2021-09-09, $107.08; peak close $114.39 on 2021-09-10). Prices are unadjusted daily closes from Yahoo Finance's chart data; no stock split has occurred, so raw and split-adjusted closes coincide. If the criterion were later reinterpreted as an end-of-window or sustained-level test, the result would flip to not-met, so the touch-once reading is recorded explicitly here. No quote-authenticity or resolution-ambiguity concern warranting needs_human_review.
Sources
Tom Nash Reacts To Elon Saying Tesla is a $3,000 Stock
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Reference level: 2021-09-05 fell on a Sunday, so the most recent traded 'current level' as of the prediction date is the Friday 2021-09-03 close of $98.56 (PTON daily OHLC, Yahoo Finance).
Criterion met within 5 trading days: PTON closed at $107.08 on 2021-09-09 and $114.39 on 2021-09-10 (intraday high $118.61 on 2021-09-10), and closed above the $98.56 reference level on every session from 2021-09-09 through 2021-09-21 — clearly exceeding its 2021-09-05 level within the 36-month window.
Context (does not change resolution): after this brief post-prediction rally PTON collapsed, losing ~95% of value, trading in the single-digit-to-low-teens range through the 2024-09-05 deadline and never regaining its 2021 highs. The criterion, however, only requires exceeding the reference level at some point in the window, which occurred.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+2.27- How sure they sounded
- 65%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Peloton's stock price will rise above its current level.- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2021-09-05
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources