Full record
HitmarketsIf the Fed announces an interest-rate spike or a faster taper, the US stock market will crash.
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitmarkets“all the fed really needs to do to push this market back down just to announce an interest rate spike or a faster taper and then we're going to come crashing down again”
If the Fed announces an interest-rate spike or a faster taper, the US stock market will crash.
- Made on
- 2021-12-08
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- +3.82
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2022-02-22
Following a hawkish Fed taper/rate announcement, the S&P 500 falls >=10% within ~3 months.
Conditional prediction: the antecedent (a hawkish Fed taper/rate announcement) occurred (Dec 15, 2021 accelerated taper; Jan 5, 2022 hawkish minutes). The consequent (S&P falls >=10% within ~3 months) was met: the index confirmed a >=10% correction on Feb 22, 2022, before the Mar 8, 2022 deadline. Confound to flag for scoring: the drawdown deepened alongside the Russia–Ukraine invasion (late Feb 2022), so the >=10% decline was jointly driven by Fed tightening and the war; however the decline was already underway from the Jan 3 peak on Fed-tightening fears before the invasion. 'Crash' here is interpreted per the written criterion as a >=10% correction, not a 2008/2020-scale collapse.
Sources
Watch This Before Buying the Dip…
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
The S&P 500 set a record close of 4,796.56 on Jan 3, 2022, then fell into a confirmed correction (>=10% off the high) on Feb 22, 2022 (down ~10.3%), its first correction since the COVID crash. The sell-off followed the Fed's Dec 15, 2021 accelerated-taper decision and the hawkish Jan 5, 2022 FOMC minutes signaling faster hikes/balance-sheet runoff.
Forbes (Feb 23, 2022): S&P 500 fell deeper into correction territory, confirming the index was >10% below its January high.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+3.82- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
If the Fed announces an interest-rate spike or a faster tap…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2021-12-08
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources