Full record
MisseconomyAs of June 2024 the Federal Reserve will add net liquidity to the system via its balance sheet (stop/slow contraction)
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Misseconomy“the Fed is going to be pumping more money into the system through the balance sheet”
As of June 2024 the Federal Reserve will add net liquidity to the system via its balance sheet (stop/slow contraction)
- Made on
- 2024-05-02
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- -1.78
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-06-01
Beginning June 2024 the Fed's balance sheet stops net contraction / begins net expansion (adds net liquidity), matching the claim that the Fed is 'pumping more money into the system.' NOT met: QT continued past June 2024 (runoff merely slowed from $60B to $25B/mo); total assets kept declining and never began net expansion.
Criterion has two disjuncts: 'stops contracting' OR 'pace of runoff is materially reduced.' The second disjunct is clearly satisfied (Treasury runoff cap cut from $60B to $25B/month effective June 1 2024); the balance sheet still contracted overall, so the 'stops contracting / adds net liquidity' framing is not literally met. Both facts noted.
Sources
MIND-BLOWING News Just Hit The Stock Market!
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
At its May 1 2024 meeting the FOMC announced that, beginning June 1 2024, it would slow the pace of balance-sheet runoff by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $60B to $25B (MBS cap held at $35B). This materially reduced the pace of quantitative tightening starting in June 2024.
Federal Reserve May 1 2024 FOMC statement confirming the decision to slow the decline of securities holdings starting June 1, 2024.
Fed H.4.1 balance-sheet data shows total assets continued to decline through mid-2024 but at a slower runoff pace after the June 1 cap reduction; the balance sheet did not begin net expansion.
Corrections
- What counted as right: The lenient 'pace materially reduced' disjunct laundered a false claim; the verbatim asserts net liquidity ADDITION, which did not occur. Aligning the criterion to the actual claim resolves it as incorrect.
Effect on the score
-1.78- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
As of June 2024 the Federal Reserve will add net liquidity…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-05-02
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources