Full record
MisseconomyIf interest rates remain elevated, few regional/smaller-sector banks are left standing in 18 months
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Misseconomy“There's not going to be a whole lot of bank from the regional smaller bank sector that's going to be left standing in 18 months if the interest rates remain elevated.”
If interest rates remain elevated, few regional/smaller-sector banks are left standing in 18 months
- Made on
- 2023-05-05
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- -1.78
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-11-05
Conditional on elevated rates, a large share of regional/smaller banks fail or are absorbed by ~2024-11-05, leaving few independent (e.g. a substantial reduction in the regional-bank count); falsified if the regional-bank sector remains broadly intact
Antecedent ('if rates remain elevated') was satisfied — rates stayed at cycle highs almost the whole window — so the conditional resolves on its consequent rather than being void for a failed premise. The consequent was FALSIFIED: 'few regional/smaller banks left standing' did not occur. Only ~4 small banks failed in the window (a near-baseline rate), the sector's institution count showed no abnormal contraction, and no substantial reduction in the regional-bank count attributable to elevated rates materialized. The prediction's explicit falsification clause ('falsified if the regional-bank sector remains broadly intact') is the condition that obtained. Direction of outcome (false) is left to the scoring stage; no conflicting credible evidence of a sector-wide collapse was found.
Sources
The Banking Crisis Just Got Worse (Do This ASAP)
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Antecedent HELD: the Fed held the policy rate at 5.25-5.50% (a two-decade high) from July 2023 through September 2024, cutting only 50bp on 2024-09-18, so rates remained 'elevated' for essentially the entire 18-month window. Evaluating the consequent is therefore in-scope rather than vacuous.
FDIC Failed Bank List shows the regional/community bank sector did NOT collapse during the window. After the three large 2023 failures (SVB, Signature, First Republic), only a handful of small institutions failed through 2024-11-05: Citizens Bank of Sac City IA (Nov 2023), Republic First Bank / Philadelphia (Apr 2024), Pulaski Savings Bank (Jan 2024), and The First National Bank of Lindsay OK (Oct 2024). This is a normal-baseline failure rate, not the near-wipeout the criterion describes.
FDIC-insured institution counts remained on their long, slow secular decline (~4,500+ commercial banks) driven by ordinary M&A, with no elevated-rate-driven mass failure or absorption event. The regional-bank sector remained broadly intact through the deadline, satisfying the criterion's falsification condition.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-1.78- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
If interest rates remain elevated, few regional/smaller-sec…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-05-05
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources