Full record
MisseconomyThe US will enter a recession by the end of 2023
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Misseconomy“I will be stunned if we don't have a recession in 23 don't know the timing but certainly by the end of 23”
The US will enter a recession by the end of 2023
- Made on
- 2022-10-10
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 5 / 5
- Effect on score
- -4.41
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2023-12-31
An NBER-dated US recession (or two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP) begins on or before 2023-12-31.
Neither prong of the criterion is met: NBER dated no recession beginning by 2023-12-31, and 2023 real GDP was positive every quarter (no two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP). The 2022 H1 two-negative-quarters episode fell before the utterance window and was never NBER-dated. Prediction did not come to pass; outcome value left to scoring stage.
Sources
3 Ways To Prepare For a Recession
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
NBER Business Cycle Dating chronology shows the most recent peak at Feb 2020 and trough at Apr 2020, with no recession dated since. No US recession begins on or before 2023-12-31.
FRED NBER-based recession indicator (USREC) shows no recession flagged during calendar 2023, corroborating the absence of any dated contraction.
Corrections
- certainty verbatim marker: The marker must quote this statement's own verbatim. 'absolutely inevitable' belongs to the Oct-3 repetition (video E3yIY5SSErA), not this Oct-10 primary; the primary's high-confidence marker is 'I will be stunned if we don't ... certainly by the end of 23'. Confidence level (high) unchanged.
Effect on the score
-4.41- How sure they sounded
- 97%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 5 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The US will enter a recession by the end of 2023- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-10-10
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources