Full record
HiteconomyMore Chinese real-estate developers will default following Evergrande and Kaisa.
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Hiteconomy“this is just the first episode of a multi-seasonal series this is just a preview”
More Chinese real-estate developers will default following Evergrande and Kaisa.
- Made on
- 2021-12-09
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.86
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2022-05-12
At least one additional major Chinese property developer defaults within ~12 months of 2021-12-09.
Criterion (at least one additional major Chinese property developer defaults within ~12 months of 2021-12-09) is comfortably met and over-satisfied: Sunac (May 2022) and Shimao (Jul 2022) are two clear major additional defaults, with more than a dozen developers reported to have defaulted on domestic/offshore bonds over the period, all before the Dec 9, 2022 deadline.
Sources
China's Evergrande and Kaisa Group Officially Default
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Sunac China — one of the country's largest developers and a top-five property bond issuer — failed to make coupon payments in May 2022 and defaulted on its dollar bonds, a major additional default after Evergrande and Kaisa.
Shimao Group, a large Shanghai developer, defaulted in July 2022 after failing to pay $1.02 billion in principal and interest on 4.75% senior notes — a further major additional default.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+2.86- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
More Chinese real-estate developers will default following…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2021-12-09
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources