Full record
HitgeopoliticsThe Russia-Ukraine war becomes a drawn-out attritional conflict lasting many months rather than a rapid conquest
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitgeopolitics“right now it's looking like way closer to a drawn out months and months of attrition war than the blitzkrieg”
The Russia-Ukraine war becomes a drawn-out attritional conflict lasting many months rather than a rapid conquest
- Made on
- 2022-03-25
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- +3.02
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2022-09-25
The Russia-Ukraine war remains an active, unresolved conflict beyond ~6 months (still ongoing past 2022-09), rather than ending in a rapid Russian conquest.
Criterion (still ongoing past ~2022-09, not a rapid Russian conquest) is satisfied: the conflict was demonstrably active and escalating around the deadline. Uncontroversial, well-documented outcome; no outcome value assigned here.
Sources
I got bad news...
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
The Russia-Ukraine war remained an active, unresolved conflict well beyond ~6 months. On 2022-09-06 Ukraine launched a major Kharkiv counteroffensive (reclaiming ~3,000 sq km by 2022-09-10, retaking Izium, Kupiansk, Lyman), demonstrating an ongoing attritional war rather than a rapid Russian conquest. The war was still active at and past the 2022-09-25 deadline.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+3.02- How sure they sounded
- 65%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The Russia-Ukraine war becomes a drawn-out attritional conf…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-03-25
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources