Full record
MissmarketsThe bulk of the 2024 market rally will arrive in Q4 (October-December), not in August or September
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Missmarkets“the biggest chunk of this rally isn't going to come in August or September it's going to come in October and more likely in November December”
The bulk of the 2024 market rally will arrive in Q4 (October-December), not in August or September
- Made on
- 2024-08-14
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- -1.33
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-12-31
S&P 500's largest quarterly gain of H2 2024 occurs in Q4 (Oct-Dec) with a meaningful positive rally.
Counter to the claim: the largest H2 2024 quarterly gain occurred in Q3 (+5.5%, which includes Aug/Sep), not Q4 (+1.9%). The 'bulk of the rally in Q4, not Aug/Sep' criterion is contradicted — Q4 was in fact the weakest quarter. Resolvable and unambiguous. No outcome value assigned (scoring stage).
Sources
URGENT: Federal Reserve Cancels Recession, Massive Pivot Ahead
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
S&P 500 quarterly returns for 2024: Q3 +5.5%, Q4 +1.9%. Q4 was the WEAKEST quarter of 2024 — the first time since 2018 that Q4 was the year's weakest — with the index up less than 2%.
CNBC year-end recap confirms Q4 momentum faded (Big Tech slowed in the final weeks) even as the S&P 500 finished 2024 up ~23% for the full year.
Corrections
- certainty verbatim marker: 'should expect' does not appear in this record's verbatim (it is from a different Aug-8 clip); the actual commitment marker in the quoted sentence is 'isn't going to come'/'it's going to come'.
Effect on the score
-1.33- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The bulk of the 2024 market rally will arrive in Q4 (Octobe…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-08-14
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources