Full record
Hitmarkets2025 is not a third consecutive year of 25%+ gains for the S&P 500.
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitmarkets“statistically speaking historically speaking he's absolutely right on the money we almost have to play the lottery to see the same odds to get a third year of 25 plus% without a correction”
2025 is not a third consecutive year of 25%+ gains for the S&P 500.
- Made on
- 2024-12-18
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.94
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2025-12-31
The S&P 500's calendar-2025 price return, measured from the 2024-12-31 close to the 2025-12-31 close, is below 25%.
Criterion: S&P 500 calendar-2025 price return from the 2024-12-31 close to the 2025-12-31 close, below 25%. Widely reported closes are 5,881.63 (2024-12-31) and 6,845.50 (2025-12-31), i.e. +16.39% - comfortably below 25%, so 2025 was not a third consecutive 25%+ year. Sourcing caveat: primary index-provider data (S&P Dow Jones Indices) and FRED's SP500 series could not be fetched directly (403/blocked), and slickcharts/macrotrends were unavailable; figures rest on multiple independent media reports that agree on the 6,845.50 close and ~16.4% return. One outlet (FinancialContent 'MarketMinute') loosely described the year as 'a robust 17% annual gain... reaching an all-time high of approximately 6,900', which is an imprecise restatement rather than a genuine conflict; both figures are far below the 25% threshold, so the criterion's direction is unaffected.
Sources
Prof. Damodaran Reveals The Best Investment Approach for 2025
YouTube - Tom Nash (@TomNashTV) ·
Evidence of what happened
Stock Titan 2025 market year-end analysis: 'The benchmark index closed at 6,845.50 on December 31, 2025' and delivered a 16.39% return, a third consecutive year of double-digit (not 25%+) gains.
CNBC market coverage of the final 2025 session: 'S&P 500 closes lower Wednesday, but wraps 2025 with a 16% gain' (close 6,845.50).
Seeking Alpha market wrap: the S&P 500 closed the last day of 2025 down 0.7% but was +16.4% year-to-date.
Reuters, 2025-12-31: 'Wall Street ends year's final session lower but posts big annual gains'.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+2.94- How sure they sounded
- 90%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
2025 is not a third consecutive year of 25%+ gains for the…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-12-18
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources