Full record
HitmarketsTesla will produce 30,000–50,000 Cybertrucks in 2024.
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitmarkets“I don't think 2023 we're going to see any vehicles I believe Tesla can make anywhere from 30 to 50,000 vehicles in 2024”
Tesla will produce 30,000–50,000 Cybertrucks in 2024.
- Made on
- 2023-12-07
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Effect on score
- +1.51
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-12-31
Tesla produces between 30,000 and 50,000 Cybertrucks during calendar year 2024.
Tesla does not publish Cybertruck-specific production figures (bundled into 'other models'), so resolution relies on third-party estimates. Both credible independent estimates land inside the 30,000–50,000 band: Cox ~38,965 (production/volume-oriented) and Troy ~30,833 deliveries with production noted as higher. The two sources disagree on sales-vs-production methodology but AGREE the production figure sits within 30k–50k, so the criterion is met. resolved_on = end of the calendar-year production window; supporting estimates were published early January 2025.
Sources
Elon Musk BOMBSHELL That Will Change Tesla Forever
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Cox Automotive estimated Tesla sold ~38,965 Cybertrucks in 2024 (best-selling U.S. electric pickup). Cox's figure is understood to track production/registration volume. This falls within the 30,000–50,000 range.
Independent analyst Troy Teslike estimated ~30,833 Cybertruck deliveries in 2024 and states production EXCEEDED deliveries in 2024 (inventory build), implying 2024 production of ~31,000–39,000 units — also within the 30,000–50,000 range.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+1.51- How sure they sounded
- 65%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Tesla will produce 30,000–50,000 Cybertrucks in 2024.- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-12-07
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources