Full record

Hitmarkets

Tesla will produce 30,000–50,000 Cybertrucks in 2024.

A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .

VideoQuote from the original sourcemarketstech

Scored prediction

Hitmarkets

I don't think 2023 we're going to see any vehicles I believe Tesla can make anywhere from 30 to 50,000 vehicles in 2024

Tesla will produce 30,000–50,000 Cybertrucks in 2024.

Made on
2023-12-07
Outcome
Hit
Importance
2 / 5
Effect on score
+1.51

What counted as right

Status
resolved
Settled on
2024-12-31

Tesla produces between 30,000 and 50,000 Cybertrucks during calendar year 2024.

Tesla does not publish Cybertruck-specific production figures (bundled into 'other models'), so resolution relies on third-party estimates. Both credible independent estimates land inside the 30,000–50,000 band: Cox ~38,965 (production/volume-oriented) and Troy ~30,833 deliveries with production noted as higher. The two sources disagree on sales-vs-production methodology but AGREE the production figure sits within 30k–50k, so the criterion is met. resolved_on = end of the calendar-year production window; supporting estimates were published early January 2025.

Sources

  • Elon Musk BOMBSHELL That Will Change Tesla Forever

    YouTube ·

    Source

Evidence of what happened

  • Cox Automotive estimated Tesla sold ~38,965 Cybertrucks in 2024 (best-selling U.S. electric pickup). Cox's figure is understood to track production/registration volume. This falls within the 30,000–50,000 range.

    Evidence

  • Independent analyst Troy Teslike estimated ~30,833 Cybertruck deliveries in 2024 and states production EXCEEDED deliveries in 2024 (inventory build), implying 2024 production of ~31,000–39,000 units — also within the 30,000–50,000 range.

    Evidence

Corrections

No public corrections.

Effect on the score

+1.51
How sure they sounded
65%
Outcome
Hit
Importance
2 / 5

This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.

Where this came from

Tesla will produce 30,000–50,000 Cybertrucks in 2024.
Methodology version
v1.0.0
Last computed
August 2, 2026
Made on
2023-12-07

How this profile was built

  1. Scored by independent judges

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  3. Independently verified against sources

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