Full record
MissmarketsTesla (TSLA) shares rise sharply on the trading day following the Q3 2020 earnings release (2020-10-22).
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Missmarkets“these are insanely phenomenal numbers better than i could ever imagine i i think the stock is going to go through the roof”
Tesla (TSLA) shares rise sharply on the trading day following the Q3 2020 earnings release (2020-10-22).
- Made on
- 2020-10-21
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Effect on score
- +0.31
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2020-10-22
Resolves TRUE if TSLA's closing price on 2020-10-22 is at least 5% above its 2020-10-21 close ('go through the roof' operationalised as a next-session gain of 5% or more); a smaller gain or any decline resolves it FALSE.
The criterion operationalises 'go through the roof' as a close on 2020-10-22 at least 5% above the 2020-10-21 close. Measured gain was +0.75% (140.88 to 141.93 split-adjusted; 422.64 to 425.79 unadjusted), well short of the 5% threshold. Note for transparency: the intraday high of $148.41 on 2020-10-22 was +5.34% above the prior close, so an intraday-based reading would have cleared 5% — but the written criterion is explicitly a CLOSING-price test, and on that test the threshold was not reached. No conflicting evidence.
Sources
WOW! Tesla (TSLA) drops a huge bombshell with Q3 2020 results
YouTube - Tom Nash (@TomNashTV) ·
Evidence of what happened
Tesla filed its Q3 2020 earnings 8-K with the SEC on 2020-10-21 (report date 2020-10-21, after the close), making 2020-10-22 the next trading session — the session the criterion measures.
TSLA daily closes from Yahoo Finance: 2020-10-21 close $140.88 split-adjusted (= $422.64 on the then-current 5:1-split basis); 2020-10-22 close $141.93 split-adjusted (= $425.79). The next-session change was +$1.05, or +0.75%.
Corroborating intraday detail for 2020-10-22: open $147.31, high $148.41, low $141.50, close $141.93 (split-adjusted). The stock gapped up at the open but gave back nearly all of it, closing only 0.75% above the prior session.
Corrections
- tags: The claim is about the stock's price reaction, not technology/innovation; tag by subject → markets only.
Effect on the score
+0.31- How sure they sounded
- 65%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Tesla (TSLA) shares rise sharply on the trading day followi…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2020-10-21
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources