Full record
HiteconomyEvergrande's default will spread contagion across the broader Chinese property market.
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Hiteconomy“that's gonna have a collateral effect on the entire chinese property market”
Evergrande's default will spread contagion across the broader Chinese property market.
- Made on
- 2021-12-09
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- +3.82
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2022-07-19
Multiple additional Chinese property developers experience distress/default and the sector shows broad price/credit deterioration within ~12 months.
Criterion (multiple additional developers in distress/default AND broad sector price/credit deterioration within ~12 months of 2021-12-09) is clearly met well within the Dec 9, 2022 deadline: numerous developer defaults plus collapsing sales, falling prices across most major cities, sharp declines in new starts and developer lending, and a nationwide mortgage boycott. Strong support for contagion across the broader Chinese property market.
Sources
China's Evergrande and Kaisa Group Officially Default
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Contagion spread broadly across China's property sector in 2022. More than a dozen Chinese developers defaulted on domestic/offshore bonds after Evergrande, including Shimao, Sunac, Kaisa and Fantasia; three of the top five property bond issuers (Evergrande, Kaisa, Sunac) defaulted on dollar bonds.
Broad price/credit deterioration: S&P Global expected national property sales to fall 28%–33% in 2022; property prices had fallen in more than two-thirds of China's 70 largest cities; newly started projects fell 45.4% YoY and bank loans to developers fell 36.8% in July. A nationwide mortgage-payment boycott (mid-2022) hit 300+ projects across hundreds of locations.
S&P Global Ratings (Jul 26, 2022): China property sales set to drop by roughly a third as mortgage strikes break out — sector-wide credit and demand deterioration.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+3.82- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Evergrande's default will spread contagion across the broad…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2021-12-09
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources