Full record
HiteconomyThe federal funds rate is at least 5% at the end of 2023
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Hiteconomy“he said more rate hikes are incoming they're more hikes needed again a little bit on the hawkish side we knew that how many more hawkishness how many more rate hikes he didn't say but at the very least we know at least it's going to be five percent at the end of the year at bare minimum”
The federal funds rate is at least 5% at the end of 2023
- Made on
- 2023-02-01
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- +3.92
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2023-12-31
The upper bound of the FOMC's federal funds target range stands at or above 5.00% as of 2023-12-31 (equivalently, the effective fed funds rate is at or above 5.00% at year end).
Both alternative tests in the criterion agree and clear the threshold with margin: target-range upper bound 5.50% (>= 5.00%) and effective fed funds rate 5.33% (>= 5.00%) at 2023 year-end. Note the target-range lower bound was 5.25%, so the claim holds even on the stricter lower-bound reading. No conflicting credible evidence found. No outcome value assigned.
Sources
Everything (Important) Jerome Powell Just Said
YouTube - Tom Nash (@TomNashTV) ·
Evidence of what happened
Federal Reserve official record of FOMC target range changes: the last change before year-end 2023 was the 2023-07-27 increase to 5.25-5.50%, which remained in effect through 2023-12-31. The upper bound of the target range at 2023 year-end was therefore 5.50%, at or above the 5.00% threshold.
Equivalent market-rate check: the daily effective federal funds rate (FRED DFF) was 5.33% on 2023-12-29, the final business day of 2023, and held 5.33% every day from 2023-07-27 through year-end. Retrieved 2026-07-25 via fredgraph.csv?id=DFF.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+3.92- How sure they sounded
- 90%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The federal funds rate is at least 5% at the end of 2023- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-02-01
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources