Full record
HiteconomyThe US banking-sector crisis does not resolve within 2023 (stress and instability persist through year-end)
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Hiteconomy“this problem for the banks is not going away in 2023”
The US banking-sector crisis does not resolve within 2023 (stress and instability persist through year-end)
- Made on
- 2023-03-24
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- +3.82
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2023-12-31
After the utterance and before 2023-12-31, US banking stress continues (at least one further notable bank failure or sustained sector distress); falsified if the sector stabilizes with no further failures/acute stress in 2023
Criterion met on the 'persists' side: at least one further notable failure (First Republic, May 1) plus additional failures (Heartland Tri-State, Citizens Bank of Sac City) occurred after the 19 March 2023 statement and before year-end. Points toward confirmed.
Sources
New Bank Run WARNING From Midsize Banks (Asking For FDIC Help)
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
First Republic Bank failed on 2023-05-01 (~$229B assets, the second-largest US bank failure ever), seized after the utterance and sold to JPMorgan — a further notable failure well after 19 March 2023.
FDIC/press record of 2023 failures: Heartland Tri-State Bank (2023-07-28) and Citizens Bank of Sac City, Iowa (2023-11-03) also failed later in 2023, showing sector distress persisted through year-end.
FDIC review: 2023 regional-bank failures were a systemic stress episode with lasting supervisory and deposit-stability concerns through the year.
Corrections
- Date: Statement was uttered in the 2023-03-24 video reacting to Powell's 2023-03-22 'no rate cuts' presser ('he literally said no'); could not have been said on 03-19.
Effect on the score
+3.82- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The US banking-sector crisis does not resolve within 2023 (…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-03-24
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources