Full record
HitmarketsThe S&P 500 will enter correction territory (a decline of at least 10% from a 2025 peak) during 2025.
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitmarkets“that's how we get to a negative 10% correction territory on the S&P 500 in 2025”
The S&P 500 will enter correction territory (a decline of at least 10% from a 2025 peak) during 2025.
- Made on
- 2025-04-01
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- +3.82
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2025-04-08
S&P 500 posts a peak-to-trough drawdown of at least 10% at some point during calendar 2025.
Criterion (>=10% peak-to-trough drawdown at some point in 2025) is decisively met. The 10% correction threshold from the 2025-02-19 peak was first crossed in mid-March 2025; the maximum drawdown of ~19% (close) was reached at the 2025-04-08 trough, which is used as resolved_on. No outcome value assigned (later stage).
Sources
Most Investors Are Not Ready For What is About to Happen (Do This ASAP)
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Exchange daily data (IBKR/ARCA, SPY as S&P 500 proxy): 2025 peak close 612.93 on 2025-02-19; trough close 496.48 on 2025-04-08 (intraday low 481.80 on 2025-04-07). Peak-to-trough drawdown = -19.0% close-to-close / -21.4% intraday — far exceeding the 10% correction threshold.
AOL/AP report: the S&P 500 closed in correction territory in March 2025 as Trump's trade war escalated, then following the 2025-04-02 'Liberation Day' tariff announcement fell about 19% from its February record high before a 90-day tariff pause on 2025-04-09 sparked a rebound. Confirms a >=10% drawdown from a 2025 peak occurred during 2025.
Oakmark 1Q2025 commentary: 'The S&P 500 has corrected' — independent confirmation that the index breached the 10% correction threshold from its 2025 peak during the year.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+3.82- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The S&P 500 will enter correction territory (a decline of a…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2025-04-01
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources