Full record
HitmarketsThe US stock market experiences a large pullback once the Federal Reserve publicly admits interest rates must rise significantly
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitmarkets“it's gonna be a massive pullback in the market”
The US stock market experiences a large pullback once the Federal Reserve publicly admits interest rates must rise significantly
- Made on
- 2022-01-05
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- +3.82
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2022-10-12
A broad US equity index (S&P 500) declines ≥10% peak-to-trough during 2022 following the Fed's acknowledgment that rates must rise significantly.
The ≥10% peak-to-trough decline was first reached in late February 2022 (correction) and ultimately deepened to 25.43% by the 2022-10-12 trough. resolved_on set to the trough date that completes the peak-to-trough measurement; the ≥10% criterion itself was met earlier. Decline clearly followed the Fed's public acknowledgment (Q1 2022) that rates must rise significantly, matching the record's conditional structure.
Sources
Inflation is a major concern, but it will NOT destroy the U.S. economy
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
The S&P 500 peaked at a closing high of 4,796.56 on 2022-01-03 and fell to a closing low of 3,577.03 on 2022-10-12, a peak-to-trough decline of 25.43% during 2022 — far exceeding the ≥10% threshold. The drawdown was driven by the Fed's aggressive tightening after it acknowledged rates had to rise significantly; the index was officially confirmed in a bear market (down >20%) on 2022-06-13.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+3.82- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The US stock market experiences a large pullback once the F…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-01-05
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources