Full record

Misseconomy

US CPI inflation will reach approximately 10% by year-end 2021.

A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .

VideoQuote from the original sourceeconomy

Scored prediction

Misseconomy

staring down the barrel of 10 inflation by the end of this year probably q1 is going to be 10 and a half 11 percent

US CPI inflation will reach approximately 10% by year-end 2021.

Made on
2021-12-15
Outcome
Miss
Importance
5 / 5
Effect on score
-2.22

What counted as right

Status
resolved
Settled on
2022-01-12

US CPI year-over-year prints at or near 10% for a month with data through December 2021.

The relevant December 2021 print (7.0% YoY) is ~3 points below the ~10% claim; not near 10%.

Sources

  • Why The Stock Market is so Volatile Right Now

    YouTube ·

    Source

Evidence of what happened

  • BLS: the all-items CPI rose 7.0% for the 12 months ending December 2021 — the largest 12-month increase since June 1982. Data through December 2021 (release date 2022-01-12). 7.0% is not at or near 10%.

    Evidence

  • BLS 'CPI 2021 in review': Dec-2020-to-Dec-2021 all-items prices rose 7.0%.

    Evidence

Corrections

No public corrections.

Effect on the score

-2.22
How sure they sounded
85%
Outcome
Miss
Importance
5 / 5

This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.

Where this came from

US CPI inflation will reach approximately 10% by year-end 2…
Methodology version
v1.0.0
Last computed
August 2, 2026
Made on
2021-12-15

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