Full record
MisstechTesla's $25,000 affordable car will be on roads within about three years
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Misstech“we're probably gonna see it on the roads probably within 24 to 36 months that's my guess”
Tesla's $25,000 affordable car will be on roads within about three years
- Made on
- 2021-03-24
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Effect on score
- -0.56
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-03-24
Tesla's ~$25,000 mass-market model reaches production/sale (on roads) on or before 2024-03-24
Criterion (a ~$25,000 mass-market Tesla reaching production/sale on or before 2024-03-24) is not met. As of the deadline no ~$25,000 Tesla existed in production or on roads; within weeks Reuters reported the project was cancelled outright and the platform repurposed for the Cybercab robotaxi. Musk publicly disputed the 'cancelled' framing ('Reuters is lying'), but even under his own account no such vehicle was in production/on sale by the deadline — the two sides disagree only on future intent, not on the deadline-date fact. resolved_on set to the deadline.
Sources
Elon Musk Just Dropped a MASSIVE Bombshell about Tesla...
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Reuters (Apr 5, 2024) reported Tesla cancelled its ~$25,000 mass-market car (internally 'Model 2'/NV9), with Musk directing the team to go all-in on the robotaxi/Cybercab platform instead. No ~$25,000 Tesla reached production or sale by the 2024-03-24 deadline.
Follow-up coverage confirming the affordable-car project was shelved and replaced by stripped-down 'Standard' Model 3/Y variants; no dedicated ~$25k model ever entered production or reached roads.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-0.56- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Tesla's $25,000 affordable car will be on roads within abou…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2021-03-24
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources