Full record
HittechThe Musk-Twitter acquisition dispute will proceed to full litigation in the Delaware Court of Chancery.
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Hittech“there's a good probability that this deal actually goes to the chance record and you know goes to full-on litigation”
The Musk-Twitter acquisition dispute will proceed to full litigation in the Delaware Court of Chancery.
- Made on
- 2022-06-08
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Effect on score
- +1.84
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2022-07-12
A lawsuit over the Musk-Twitter deal is filed and litigated in the Delaware Court of Chancery.
Criterion ('a lawsuit over the Musk-Twitter deal is filed and litigated in the Delaware Court of Chancery') fully satisfied within the 2022-12-31 deadline: Twitter v. Musk filed 2022-07-12 in the Delaware Court of Chancery and actively litigated (expedited proceedings, discovery, depositions, trial scheduled for Oct 2022). resolved_on set to the filing date, when the criterion's conditions became true. Caveat for later stages: litigation did NOT reach a full trial/verdict — Musk closed the deal on 2022-10-27 (~$44B, $54.20/share), mooting the case before trial. The written criterion asked only for filing and litigation, not adjudication, so the prediction's stated condition was met; if the quantify stage reads the underlying claim as 'proceed to FULL litigation'/trial, the deal-close-before-trial fact is the relevant nuance. No conflicting credible evidence found.
Sources
Twitter Agrees To Elon's Demands (but there is a twist)
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Twitter filed suit against Elon Musk in the Delaware Court of Chancery on July 12, 2022, seeking specific performance to force completion of the $44B merger. Case assigned to Chancellor Kathaleen St. Jude McCormick; complaint filed with motion to expedite.
Explainer confirming the suit was brought in Delaware's Court of Chancery and litigated before Chancellor McCormick, with the first hearing and expedited-proceedings dispute (Musk opposed expedition).
Harvard Corporate Governance forum documenting active litigation: Musk's opposition to Twitter's motion for expedited proceedings (July 2022), confirming the case was contested and litigated in the Chancery Court.
Litigation proceeded (discovery, depositions, five-day trial set for October 2022) until Musk reversed and closed the acquisition on October 27, 2022, before trial — so the suit was filed and litigated but did not reach a verdict.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+1.84- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The Musk-Twitter acquisition dispute will proceed to full l…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-06-08
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources