Full record
HitmarketsPalantir's 2023 AIP pilots and bootcamps will begin converting to revenue in Q3 or Q4 2024
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitmarkets“we'll start seeing this probably in Q3 or Q4 of this year”
Palantir's 2023 AIP pilots and bootcamps will begin converting to revenue in Q3 or Q4 2024
- Made on
- 2024-02-06
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.76
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-11-04
Palantir's 2023 AIP pilots/bootcamps begin converting into recognized commercial revenue during Q3 or Q4 2024 (visible as accelerating US commercial revenue/customer count).
Criterion required conversion visible in Q3 OR Q4 2024 as accelerating US commercial revenue/customer count. Both quarters qualify: US commercial revenue growth accelerated 54%→64% YoY and 13%→20% QoQ across Q3 and Q4 2024. resolved_on set to Q3 release date (2024-11-04, within the deadline) since Q3 alone satisfied the criterion; Q4 data (public 2025-02-03) is corroborating. Palantir does not publish a standalone 'bootcamp-attributed revenue' line, so evidence relies on the company-stated AIP driver plus the US-commercial revenue/customer acceleration named in the criterion; no verbatim bootcamp dollar figure available.
Sources
Palantir CEO Alex Karp Proves Doubters Wrong
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Palantir Q3 2024 (reported Nov 4, 2024): US commercial revenue grew 54% YoY and 13% QoQ to $179M; total US revenue $499M (+44% YoY, +14% QoQ); customer count grew 39% YoY and 6% QoQ. Karp attributed the surge to 'unrelenting AI demand' / AIP-driven US business. This shows AIP pilots/bootcamps converting to recognized commercial revenue during Q3 2024, visible as accelerating US commercial revenue and customer count.
Palantir Q4 2024 (reported Feb 3, 2025): US commercial revenue accelerated further to $214M, +64% YoY and +20% QoQ (vs +54% YoY / +13% QoQ in Q3). US revenue +52% YoY to $558M. Sequential and YoY acceleration across Q3→Q4 2024 corroborates the AIP-to-revenue conversion in H2 2024.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+2.76- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Palantir's 2023 AIP pilots and bootcamps will begin convert…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-02-06
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources