Full record
HitmarketsThe US stock market will be highly volatile in August 2024
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitmarkets“August is going to be very violent and September might also have the same reaction it's going to be sideways month”
The US stock market will be highly volatile in August 2024
- Made on
- 2024-08-08
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Effect on score
- +1.91
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-08-31
S&P 500 exhibits elevated volatility in August 2024 (multiple daily moves >=2% / VIX materially elevated).
Criterion clearly met: elevated volatility in Aug 2024 with daily moves >=2% and a VIX materially/exceptionally elevated (intraday 65.73). Resolvable and unambiguous. No outcome value assigned.
Sources
IT'S STARTING: THE FED IS ABOUT TO FLIP THE STOCK MARKET
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Aug 5, 2024 ('Black Monday') was a major volatility event: S&P 500 fell ~3% (down ~4.3% intraday) amid the yen carry-trade unwind; VIX spiked +42 pts to 65.73 intraday, its highest since the 2020 COVID shock and strongest daily advance since Oct 2020.
The spike featured multiple large daily swings (sharp Aug 5 drop followed by a strong rebound within the week); Cboe documented the VIX jump and its subsequent quick normalization, confirming materially elevated intra-month volatility.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+1.91- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The US stock market will be highly volatile in August 2024- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-08-08
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources