Full record
HiteconomyThe Federal Reserve raises the federal funds rate above 1% during 2022
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Hiteconomy“they'll have to raise interest beyond one percent this year”
The Federal Reserve raises the federal funds rate above 1% during 2022
- Made on
- 2022-01-10
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- +3.82
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2022-06-15
The upper bound of the Fed's target policy rate exceeds 1.00% at any point during 2022.
Criterion ('upper bound exceeds 1.00% at any point during 2022') met on 2022-06-15/16 when the range moved to 1.50–1.75%. The May 2022 hike reached an upper bound of exactly 1.00%, which does not strictly 'exceed' 1.00%; the June hike is the first strict exceedance. Year-end upper bound was 4.50%.
Sources
The end of growth stocks?
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
The FOMC raised the target range to 1.50–1.75% at its 2022-06-15 meeting (effective 2022-06-16), pushing the upper bound to 1.75% — the first time in 2022 the upper bound exceeded 1.00%. (The 2022-05-04 hike had brought the upper bound to exactly 1.00%, not above it.) The Fed continued hiking to a 4.25–4.50% range by 2022-12-15, so the upper bound remained well above 1.00% for the rest of the year.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+3.82- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The Federal Reserve raises the federal funds rate above 1%…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-01-10
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources