US interest rates stay in a high/elevated, restrictive environment across 2023 and 2024.

What counted as right

Status

resolved

Settled on

2024-12-31

The effective federal funds rate remains restrictive - at or above 4%, i.e. clearly above the Fed's longer-run neutral estimate - throughout 2023 and 2024, with no return to an accommodative setting by 2024-12-31.

Criterion met as written on both limbs: (a) the effective fed funds rate was at or above 4% on every single day of 2023 and 2024 (floor 4.33%), and (b) policy had not returned to an accommodative setting by 2024-12-31 - the year ended with a 4.25-4.50% target range, roughly 125bp above the FOMC's longer-run neutral median. Logged nuance for the later stages, not a conflict in the evidence: an easing cycle did begin inside the window (100bp of cuts between September and December 2024), so the environment was less restrictive at the end of the window than at its peak; the written criterion tests the level and the absence of an accommodative setting, both of which hold, not the absence of any cuts. No conflicting credible evidence found. No outcome value assigned.

Sources

• The “Soft Landing” Myth

  YouTube — Tom Nash (@TomNashTV) · 2022-12-01

  Source